From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 2 22:12:55 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o82ECrwA014537 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 22:12:54 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o823KXUm014070; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:45 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3194321 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:44 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82ECi9a014694 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82ECbCG018621 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E3275405001E; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:37 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 3 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=3 spamscore=3 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=65 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009020079 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100902141237.E3275405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:12:37 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Depression 10w/ To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W/ WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 020930Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM DROPSONDE DATA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS NOW MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK FORECAST AT 020000Z IN RESPONSE TO A MORE ROBUST STEERING RIDGE. THE INITIAL HALF OF THE FORECAST IS FUNDAMENTALLY THE SAME. B. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36, AFTER WHICH GFDN AND GFS DIVERGE SHARPLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS INITIALLY ON PAR WITH THEM TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 TO COMPENSATE FOR THE UNLIKELY DEFLECTION TO THE LEFT. TD 10W WILL SEE A MEAGER, ALBEIT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PERSIST UP TO TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE POLEWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE YELLOW SEA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INITIALLY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WILL, HOWEVER, DIMINISH AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO STORM MOTION INCREASES. BY TAU 120, TD 10W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND COMMENCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.