Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:06 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 021430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011421ZSEP2010//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 106.6W TO 19.5N 114.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
021400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
107.6W.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH BANDING IMPROVING ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS DEEPENED AND COOLED WITH
MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMING LIGHT AS IT APPROACHES
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A

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