From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 2 22:46:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o82EkPKq015427 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 22:46:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o823KXZ7014070; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3195049 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:13 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82EkD5S020296 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82Ek7es019469 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 07CE4405001E; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 7 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=7 spamscore=7 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=2 adultscore=1 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009020085 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100902144607.07CE4405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 09:46:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/ To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 021430 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011421ZSEP2010// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 106.6W TO 19.5N 114.1W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH BANDING IMPROVING ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS DEEPENED AND COOLED WITH MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE WITH MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BECOMING LIGHT AS IT APPROACHES THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.