Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 10w (ten) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:05 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 134.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 134.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 24.1N 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 25.5N 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 26.9N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 28.4N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 30.4N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 33.3N 125.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 36.8N 125.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 134.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W
(TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.
A 021753Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT LOCATED
MORE OVER THE CENTER OF A WEAK, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A
LARGE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT IS STARTING TO
REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE TUTT IS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY SHEAR
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W, AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS
ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUNTERACTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO THE WEST, THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO INTENSIFY AT A MORE RAPID RATE (AFTER 24 HOURS). AN APPROACHING
SMALLER TUTT FROM THE EAST MIGHT ALSO ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND
MAY SLOW NEAR TAU 72 AS IT RUNS INTO A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
RIDGE BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR
BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE EXTENSION OF
THE RIDGE. GFDN IS LOSING THE CIRCULATION EARLY IN THE MODEL RUN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT
SYSTEM.
//

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