From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 3 04:31:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o82KVj1g032381 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 04:31:46 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82InvDJ014070; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3201231 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:13 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82KVC0q003693 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82KV6Rp023707 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E171B4050023; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009020150 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100902203105.E171B4050023@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 15:31:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 10w (ten) Warning Nr 005 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 005 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 134.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 134.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 24.1N 131.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.5N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.9N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 28.4N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.4N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.3N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.8N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 022100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 134.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. A 021753Z AMSU-B IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION, BUT LOCATED MORE OVER THE CENTER OF A WEAK, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A LARGE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) THAT IS STARTING TO REFLECT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE TUTT IS PROVIDING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W, AND THE SURFACE REFLECTION IS ENHANCING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COUNTERACTING THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TD 10W. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO THE WEST, THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INTENSIFY AT A MORE RAPID RATE (AFTER 24 HOURS). AN APPROACHING SMALLER TUTT FROM THE EAST MIGHT ALSO ENHANCE OUTFLOW AND ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND MAY SLOW NEAR TAU 72 AS IT RUNS INTO A WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE BEFORE BEING KICKED OUT BY A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NEAR TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NOGAPS AND EGRR BRINGING THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. GFDN IS LOSING THE CIRCULATION EARLY IN THE MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (KOMPASU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. // +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.