From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 3 05:14:52 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o82LEp4w001558 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 05:14:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82InvIY014070; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3202005 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:35 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82LEZN8008430 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o82LESdp028487 for ; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DAAC64050024; Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:27 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009020162 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100902211427.DAAC64050024@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 16:14:27 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 160 FXPQ60 PGUM 022114 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 714 AM CHST FRI SEP 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERING MUCH OF THE MARIANAS BEFORE SUNSET THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... NO CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. WEAK TROUGH OVER AREA WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS BY SUNRISE INDICATES A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...DESPITE THIS HIATUS EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING. && .MARINE... NO CHANGE HERE AS EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND AN EAST TRADE WIND SWELL OF AROUND FOUR FEET IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE ITCZ STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM CHUUK STATE ACROSS OTHER MICRONESIAN STATES TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE DATE LINE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK THRU THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS...REVEALS BY SOUNDING DATA IS GOING TO SUPPRESS SHOWER FORMATION OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY. THIS SAME FEATURE WILL ALSO PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR CHUUK BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL. FARTHER TO THE EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER MAJURO INTO SATURDAY...AND SPREAD OVER KOSRAE BY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. BASED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF VERY DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IS FLOWING ACROSS THE EQUATOR EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THE SW TO NE ORIENTATION OF THE ITCZ WILL ALLOW THESE DRY TRADES TO DOMINATE THE REGION FROM THE MARSHALLS AND WESTWARD DURING NEXT WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM MINDANAO THROUGH JUST NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE MARIANAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONVERGING INTO THE RIDGE AXIS IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER PALAU AND YAP THIS MORNING. AIDED BY DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST OF THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND... THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH OF 20N AND CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE ITCZ NEAR CHUUK TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND BRING CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.