Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 2 Sep 2010 17:10:45 -0500

100 
FXPQ60 PGUM 022210 CCA
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
810 AM CHST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING MUCH OF THE MARIANAS BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. WEAK TROUGH OVER AREA WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
RADAR TRENDS BY SUNRISE INDICATES A DECREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...DESPITE THIS HIATUS EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGE HERE AS EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND AN EAST TRADE
WIND SWELL OF AROUND FOUR FEET IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATE ITCZ
STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM CHUUK STATE ACROSS OTHER MICRONESIAN
STATES TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD THRU
THE DATE LINE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...DRIER
AIR AT MID LEVELS...REVEALS BY SOUNDING DATA IS GOING TO SUPPRESS
SHOWER FORMATION OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY. THIS SAME FEATURE
WILL ALSO PROMOTE DRIER CONDITIONS FOR CHUUK BY SATURDAY MORNING
AS WELL. FARTHER TO THE EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST OVER MAJURO INTO SATURDAY...AND SPREAD OVER KOSRAE BY
THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND
CHUUK OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL. BASED ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF VERY DRY SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS IS
FLOWING ACROSS THE EQUATOR EAST OF THE DATE LINE. THE SW TO NE
ORIENTATION OF THE ITCZ WILL ALLOW THESE DRY TRADES TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FROM THE MARSHALLS AND WESTWARD DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM MINDANAO
THROUGH JUST NORTH OF KOROR AND YAP TO THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE
MARIANAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONVERGING INTO THE RIDGE AXIS IS
INCREASING CONVERGENCE OVER PALAU AND YAP THIS MORNING. AIDED BY
DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH LOCATIONS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST OF THE AREA.
OVER THE WEEKEND... THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH OF
20N AND CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ITCZ NEAR CHUUK TO EXTEND WESTWARD AND BRING
CONVERGENCE INDUCED SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

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