From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 3 15:46:38 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o837kb7w001842 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:46:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8350M0Q019557; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3210081 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:20 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o837kKCa001230 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o837kDuU014935 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 50DEF405002A; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100903074613.50DEF405002A@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 007 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 030900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 131.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 131.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 25.4N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 26.9N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 28.4N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.7N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.3N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 33.2N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 35.7N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 130.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE WEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030516Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO A WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS MALOU WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND EXPOSURE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, ERRATIC STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.