Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 02:46:13 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 007
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 131.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 131.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 25.4N 128.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 26.9N 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 28.4N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 29.7N 124.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 31.3N 124.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 33.2N 123.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 35.7N 123.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 130.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION THAT IS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS A TUTT CELL TO THE
WEST THAT IS IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 030516Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED JUST SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN THROUGH TAU
72. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO A WEAK STEERING
FLOW IN THE YELLOW SEA AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TS MALOU WILL THEN
WEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA AND
EXPOSURE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48 THEN OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, ERRATIC STORM MOTION AFTER TAU 72 IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//

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