Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:51 -0500

765 
FXPQ60 PGUM 031209
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1008 PM CHST FRI SEP 3 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OF EARLIER TODAY ARE RAPIDLY DISSPATING. OUTFLOW FROM THE
AREA OF RAIN EAST OF GUAM HAS BRIEFLY PUSHED EAST WINDS UP A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE AROUND GUAM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TD 10W...NOW OVER 1000 MILES NW OF GUAM...THE
WEATHER IS RAPIDLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MARIANAS. MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR MORE...JUST MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A MODERATE ITCZ 
STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM CHUUK STATE ACROSS OTHER MICRONESIAN STATES 
TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE DATE 
LINE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...DRIER AIR AT MID 
LEVELS...REVEALED BY SOUNDING DATA IS GOING TO SUPPRESS SHOWER 
FORMATION OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER MAJURO INTO SATURDAY...AND SPREAD 
OVER KOSRAE TOWARD DAWN. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT 
POHNPEI AND CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST OF YAP AND PALAU EASTWARD TO 
ABOUT 144E. AIDED BY DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS...THE ITCZ FROM EASTERN 
MICRONESIA IS EXTENDING PAST CHUUK TO 144E. THE MODELS STRENGTHEN 
THIS FEATURE IN WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE 
WEAKENS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS BECAUSE THERE 
ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN EACH 
MODEL. AT KOROR...FAIRLY STRONG CONVERGENCE COVERS THEM MONDAY. AT 
YAP...THE ITCZ REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...AND AT 
CHUUK...THE ITCZ IS NARROW AND ONLY MODERATE...ALLOWING ONLY WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE LATTER TWO LOCATIONS.    

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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