From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 3 20:10:13 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o83CACNY014584 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:10:12 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8350MBm019570; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3212373 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:58 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83C9wBu021984 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:58 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83C9pTB018171 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:57 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 90FC84050020; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:51 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030043 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100903120951.90FC84050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 07:09:51 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 765 FXPQ60 PGUM 031209 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1008 PM CHST FRI SEP 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OF EARLIER TODAY ARE RAPIDLY DISSPATING. OUTFLOW FROM THE AREA OF RAIN EAST OF GUAM HAS BRIEFLY PUSHED EAST WINDS UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE AROUND GUAM. && .DISCUSSION... WITH THE DEPARTURE OF TD 10W...NOW OVER 1000 MILES NW OF GUAM...THE WEATHER IS RAPIDLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MARIANAS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE...JUST MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A MODERATE ITCZ STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM CHUUK STATE ACROSS OTHER MICRONESIAN STATES TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD THRU THE DATE LINE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS...REVEALED BY SOUNDING DATA IS GOING TO SUPPRESS SHOWER FORMATION OVER POHNPEI THRU SATURDAY. FARTHER TO THE EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER MAJURO INTO SATURDAY...AND SPREAD OVER KOSRAE TOWARD DAWN. THESE SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE AT POHNPEI AND CHUUK THIS WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEST OF YAP AND PALAU EASTWARD TO ABOUT 144E. AIDED BY DIVERGENT UPPER WINDS...THE ITCZ FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA IS EXTENDING PAST CHUUK TO 144E. THE MODELS STRENGTHEN THIS FEATURE IN WESTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS BECAUSE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ITCZ IN EACH MODEL. AT KOROR...FAIRLY STRONG CONVERGENCE COVERS THEM MONDAY. AT YAP...THE ITCZ REMAINS MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...AND AT CHUUK...THE ITCZ IS NARROW AND ONLY MODERATE...ALLOWING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THE LATTER TWO LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.