From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 04:51:48 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o83Kpi4A002351 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:51:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrH3I019570; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3220217 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83KpEbH015893 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83Kp7sh006096 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9E00E4050021; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030145 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100903205107.9E00E4050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 009 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 032100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 031800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.6N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 28.9N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.2N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.6N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 35.7N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 127.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS FOLLOWED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. A 031415Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AND A 031742Z 89 GHZ AMSU PASS CONFIRM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLLCC. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE APPARENT LLCC IN THESE TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED WESTWARD, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILD OVER THE LLCC. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED OVER JAPAN. AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND INTENSIFY AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO THE YELLOW SEA DUE TO THE IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HINDERING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS INDICATE AN ERRATIC LOOPING PATTERN, EGRR AND JGSM DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA, AND ECMWF AND WBAR RECURVE THE SYSTEM WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, BUT FAVORS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.