Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 24.6N 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 25.6N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 26.8N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.9N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 28.9N 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 30.2N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 32.6N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 35.7N 122.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 127.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS FOLLOWED A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. A 031415Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AND A
031742Z 89 GHZ AMSU PASS CONFIRM A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOW
TIGHTLY CURVED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLLCC.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE
APPARENT LLCC IN THESE TWO MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PREVIOUSLY HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND
IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED
WESTWARD, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REBUILD OVER THE LLCC. TS 10W IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED OVER JAPAN. AS AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE, TS 10W IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW AND INTENSIFY AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE COAST OF
EASTERN CHINA. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
TRACKS INTO THE YELLOW SEA DUE TO THE IMPACT OF MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES HINDERING OUTFLOW AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, BUT
BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
GFDN, GFS, AND NOGAPS INDICATE AN ERRATIC LOOPING PATTERN, EGRR AND
JGSM DRIVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA, AND ECMWF
AND WBAR RECURVE THE SYSTEM WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72,
BUT FAVORS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z,
040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//

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