Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:17 -0500

019 
FXPQ60 PGUM 032116
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
716 AM CHST SAT SEP 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING RELATIVLY DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA MOSTLY
AROUND GUAM. THERE WAS A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. MODELS PREDICT THAT 700 MB RH WILL REMAIN BELOW 70 PERCENT
THROUGH FRIDAY. FURTHER INDICATION OF THE TURN TOWARDS DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE THE PREDICTIONS FOR THE MJO. THE MJO HAD A BREIF
SPURT OF ACTIVITY THE LAST WEEK AND THIS HELPED SPAWN A FEW
TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
MJO WILL WEAKEN AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL WANE. EAST TRADE WINDS
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE WESTERN
PACIFIC...NONE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT TO LOCAL RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL AS AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF AROUND
FOUR FEET IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THORUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
BOTH ASCAT AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ITCZ STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE MAJOR
ISLANDS/ATOLLS TO EAST OF THE DATE LINE. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ITCZ AND CAUSE POCKETS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM.
BEING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE...FAIR WEATHER WILL
REMAIN OVER CHUUK THRU TONIGHT. FOR POHNPEI...LINGERING DRYNESS
AT MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT WIDELY SCATTERED CATEGORY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SINCE KOSRAE IS ALREADY AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
ITCZ...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY. A SHORT
WAVE IS VISIBLE ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE DATE LINE AND WILL BE
APPROACHING MAJURO TODAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE
BEFORE NOON AND WILL LAST INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...A MUCH DRIER
AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR BOTH
MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN POHNPEI TOWARD
MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...CHUUK IS GOING TO BE IN THE HEART OF
THE CONVERGENCE AREA WITH RAINY WEATHER AT LEAST THRU MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS
AND A PERSISTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP IS
INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR
CHUUK...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP EAST OF KOROR
AND SOUTH OF YAP THIS MORNING. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SPREAD OVER KOROR LATER TODAY BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF YAP.
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD FURTHER
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE YAP IS LOCATED A BIT NORTH OF MAIN
CONVERGENCE...SHOWER COVERAGE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARING
TO PALAU.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.