From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 05:17:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o83LHSFT003425 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 05:17:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrH4s019570; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:25 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3220577 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:25 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83LGOAP018493 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83LGIY4029664 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 00FE94050020; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:17 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030149 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100903211618.00FE94050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 16:16:17 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 019 FXPQ60 PGUM 032116 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 716 AM CHST SAT SEP 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AFTER A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING RELATIVLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA MOSTLY AROUND GUAM. THERE WAS A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE ISLAND. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. MODELS PREDICT THAT 700 MB RH WILL REMAIN BELOW 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. FURTHER INDICATION OF THE TURN TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THE PREDICTIONS FOR THE MJO. THE MJO HAD A BREIF SPURT OF ACTIVITY THE LAST WEEK AND THIS HELPED SPAWN A FEW TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MJO WILL WEAKEN AND ITS INFLUENCE WILL WANE. EAST TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A FEW UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC...NONE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE ANY SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT TO LOCAL RAINFALL. && .MARINE... LITTLE CHANGE HERE AS WELL AS AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL OF AROUND FOUR FEET IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THORUGH THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... BOTH ASCAT AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN ITCZ STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ALL THE MAJOR ISLANDS/ATOLLS TO EAST OF THE DATE LINE. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND CAUSE POCKETS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM. BEING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE...FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER CHUUK THRU TONIGHT. FOR POHNPEI...LINGERING DRYNESS AT MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT WIDELY SCATTERED CATEGORY INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE KOSRAE IS ALREADY AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY. A SHORT WAVE IS VISIBLE ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE DATE LINE AND WILL BE APPROACHING MAJURO TODAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO ARRIVE BEFORE NOON AND WILL LAST INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN POHNPEI TOWARD MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...CHUUK IS GOING TO BE IN THE HEART OF THE CONVERGENCE AREA WITH RAINY WEATHER AT LEAST THRU MONDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS AND A PERSISTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP IS INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR CHUUK...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP EAST OF KOROR AND SOUTH OF YAP THIS MORNING. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD OVER KOROR LATER TODAY BUT STAY JUST SOUTH OF YAP. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE YAP IS LOCATED A BIT NORTH OF MAIN CONVERGENCE...SHOWER COVERAGE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARING TO PALAU. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.