From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 06:59:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o83MxVSb007126 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 06:59:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8350MJV019557; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3222344 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:12 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83MxC1e012580 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83Mx5f6021863 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 70F1A405001E; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=2 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030167 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100903225905.70F1A405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 032300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 94.0W TO 17.0N 95.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 032230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 94.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.1W, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 042300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.