Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 17:59:05 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 032300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 94.0W TO 17.0N 95.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
032230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
94.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
94.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.1W, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS) OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
042300Z.//

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