From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 12:52:49 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o844qmqk023437 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 12:52:49 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrHQF019570; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3224944 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:21 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o844qL1j004857 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o844qEtJ000961 for ; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7F147405001E; Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009030224 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100904045213.7F147405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 23:52:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 10// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 032330Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, 150 NM EAST OF TS 10W. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THIS INTENSITY IS VERIFIED BY OBSERVATIONS NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BAROMETER MEASUREMENTS OF 997 MB AND 999 MB. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW, PREVIOUSLY IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TS 10W, HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE LOW TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE RECENT STORM MOTION IS SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH MAY BE AN INDICATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF OKINAWA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, HOWEVER THE FUNDAMENTAL PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS THE SAME. B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ORIENTATED SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN, HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF TS 10W HAS SLOWED ITS OVERALL SPEED OF ADVANCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK DUE TO POSSIBLE DCI WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN YELLOW SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 24, IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POOR HANDLING OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. GFS, EGRR, AND JGSM TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA, WHILE NOGAPS, WBAR, AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE POLEWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE UNCERTAINTIES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.