Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:41 -0500

790 
FXPQ60 PGUM 040834
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
634 PM CHST SAT SEP 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW INCREASING SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWN WEAKLY IN THE 00Z GFS
ANALYSIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE EAST OF TINIAN
AND SAIPAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR A GOOD BET
THIS EVENING AS WEAK TROUGHING RIPPLES THROUGH THE MARIANAS...
FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY SETTLED CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK LOOKS PRETTY QUIET
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GRADIENT WIND ANALYSIS REVEAL AN ITCZ 
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF THE 
DATE LINE. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 
IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND CAUSING POCKETS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM. BEING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE 
ZONE...FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER CHUUK THRU THIS EVENING... 
HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN 
AROUND CHUUK. FOR POHNPEI...A LITTLE LINGERING DRYNESS AT MID LEVELS 
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT WIDELY SCATTERED CATEGORY UNTIL SUNDAY 
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE 
SHOWS KOSRAE IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ...BUT THE CLEAR 
AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS MAJURO HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE 
SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE DRIER WEATHER FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN POHNPEI TOWARD MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER 
HAND...CHUUK MAY BE IN THE HEART OF THE CONVERGENCE AREA WITH RAINY 
WEATHER AT LEAST THRU MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO 
CHUUK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE CHUUK FORECAST AS IT WAS FOR THE 
LONGER TERM.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS AND 
A PERSISTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP...IS 
INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. WITH THE LEADING EDGE 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR 
CHUUK...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP AROUND KOROR AND 
SOUTH OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SPREADING 
OVER KOROR BUT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF YAP. INCREASING CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED PARTLY WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE YAP 
IS LOCATED A BIT NORTH OF MAIN CONVERGENCE...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD 
BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PALAU.    

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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