From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 16:35:09 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o848Z5ZE005685 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 16:35:09 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrHWw019570; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:48 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3226506 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:48 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o848YlH9019655 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o848YfRR010269 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 121F5405001E; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:41 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009040014 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100904083441.121F5405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 03:34:41 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 790 FXPQ60 PGUM 040834 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 634 PM CHST SAT SEP 4 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW INCREASING SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SHOWN WEAKLY IN THE 00Z GFS ANALYSIS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN. && .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR A GOOD BET THIS EVENING AS WEAK TROUGHING RIPPLES THROUGH THE MARIANAS... FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY SETTLED CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE NEW WEEK LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE WINDS EXPECTED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ASCAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GRADIENT WIND ANALYSIS REVEAL AN ITCZ STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF THE DATE LINE. A SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE SURGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND CAUSING POCKETS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM. BEING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE...FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER CHUUK THRU THIS EVENING... HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN AROUND CHUUK. FOR POHNPEI...A LITTLE LINGERING DRYNESS AT MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AT WIDELY SCATTERED CATEGORY UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS KOSRAE IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ITCZ...BUT THE CLEAR AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAJURO HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL PROMOTE DRIER WEATHER FOR BOTH MAJURO AND KOSRAE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN POHNPEI TOWARD MIDWEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...CHUUK MAY BE IN THE HEART OF THE CONVERGENCE AREA WITH RAINY WEATHER AT LEAST THRU MONDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO CHUUK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY LEFT THE CHUUK FORECAST AS IT WAS FOR THE LONGER TERM. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG TUTT CELL JUST NORTH OF THE MARIANAS AND A PERSISTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF PALAU AND YAP...IS INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR CHUUK...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FLARING UP AROUND KOROR AND SOUTH OF YAP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS SPREADING OVER KOROR BUT SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF YAP. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED PARTLY WITH THE ITCZ SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE YAP IS LOCATED A BIT NORTH OF MAIN CONVERGENCE...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN PALAU. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.