From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 4 17:31:33 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o849VVoJ008077 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 17:31:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrHXe019570; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3226852 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:13 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o849VDuk022723 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o849V6Kh007567 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3D818405001E; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009040024 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100904093106.3D818405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:31:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 011 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 040900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.4N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 27.8N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 29.3N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 31.1N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 33.1N 124.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 35.5N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 38.8N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 127.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CENTERED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC REMAINS IMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CIRCULATION AREA. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE PRESSURES OF 996 MB. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS STILL STRONG. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ONE CIRCULATION. AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN TS 10W NORTHWARD. AROUND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TS MALOU SHOULD REACH NORTH KOREA BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD IN THE TURN NORTHWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS WESTWARD OF MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL SOUNDINGS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.