Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 04:39:05 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 127.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 127.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 26.4N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 27.8N 125.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 29.3N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 31.1N 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 33.1N 124.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 35.5N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 38.8N 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) CENTERED BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LLCC
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CIRCULATION AREA. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE
PRESSURES OF 996 MB. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. AN UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW
AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS STILL STRONG. WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE AREA OF
CIRCULATION TO THE EAST AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS ONE CIRCULATION.
AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CHINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STEERING RIDGE AND TURN TS 10W NORTHWARD. AROUND TAU 72, TS 10W
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TS
MALOU SHOULD REACH NORTH KOREA BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE SPREAD IN THE TURN NORTHWARD, THEREFORE THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS WESTWARD OF
MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE UPPER LEVEL SOUNDINGS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//

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