Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:09 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 126.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 126.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 29.7N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 31.1N 125.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 33.0N 125.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 34.5N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 36.8N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 38.1N 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 38.9N 132.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF
CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 041723Z TRMM 89H MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 041305Z ASCAT PASS, AS
WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATE STRONGER
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 10W IS IN A REGION OF
ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TAIWAN. TS 10W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN
EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN BEGIN
TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36,
THEN WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SEOUL,
SOUTH KOREA, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL
CONSENSUS, BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//

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