From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 5 04:48:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o84KmSlN000849 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 04:48:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o83JrHkD019570; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3230331 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:16 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o84KmGDb005643 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o84Km9TU023179 for ; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D2073405001E; Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009040148 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100904204809.D2073405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 4 Sep 2010 15:48:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 013 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 042100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 28.1N 126.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 126.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 29.7N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.1N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 33.0N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.5N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.8N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 38.1N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 38.9N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 126.0E. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 041723Z TRMM 89H MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. A 041305Z ASCAT PASS, AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS TS 10W IS IN A REGION OF ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TAIWAN. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36, THEN WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A TRACK NORTH AND WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS, BASED ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.