Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:21 -0500

580 
FXPQ60 PGUM 050732
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
532 PM CHST SUN SEP 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE CNMI HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION
MAINLY WEST OF THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES TODAY. PGUA RADAR SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF GUAM AND ROTA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...GENTLE EAST TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND
FARTHER NORTH OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIATED CURRENT SCENARIO WELL...COINCIDING WITH
SATELLITE AND RADAR COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM SO KEPT THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST
AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING 150E WILL KEEP
CLOUDINESS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...A RATHER INACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR REST OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY GENTLE
EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST AS NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THIS AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH
NORTH AT ALL SITES. A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DATELINE
NEAR 10N180 IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF MAJURO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
MOISTURE NORTH OF 5N...IT IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO GET THE
DAILY SAMPLE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR
KOSRAE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE WHETHER THE WW3 WAVE FORECAST
MODELS TONES THIS DOWN A BIT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR YAP AND PALAU CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHUUK APPEARS TO BE NOW EAST OF
THIS SUPPORT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THEM.
MOISTURE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL SITES MOSTLY
CLOUDY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING CLOUD
CLUSTER SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CHUUK AND YAP SEEMS
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE YAP AND KOROR WEATHER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF
FORECAST MODELS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS SEEN
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/EDSON

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