From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 5 15:33:01 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o857X0Ni001151 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:33:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8550kr9001569; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3233971 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:33 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o857WWjN009974 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o857WLFP009032 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 98129405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:21 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050003 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100905073221.98129405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 02:32:21 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 580 FXPQ60 PGUM 050732 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 532 PM CHST SUN SEP 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE CNMI HAS BEEN ENHANCING CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES TODAY. PGUA RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF GUAM AND ROTA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GENTLE EAST TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND FARTHER NORTH OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS INITIATED CURRENT SCENARIO WELL...COINCIDING WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM SO KEPT THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH TOMORROW. A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING 150E WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...A RATHER INACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR REST OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY GENTLE EAST TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST AS NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THIS AREA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH NORTH AT ALL SITES. A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DATELINE NEAR 10N180 IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF MAJURO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MOISTURE NORTH OF 5N...IT IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE TO GET THE DAILY SAMPLE OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR KOSRAE...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE WHETHER THE WW3 WAVE FORECAST MODELS TONES THIS DOWN A BIT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE NEAR YAP AND PALAU CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHUUK APPEARS TO BE NOW EAST OF THIS SUPPORT AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THEM. MOISTURE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL SITES MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FAST MOVING CLOUD CLUSTER SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN CHUUK AND YAP SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE YAP AND KOROR WEATHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN MAKER IS SEEN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ WILLIAMS/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.