From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 5 16:57:42 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o858vf7f004638 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:57:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8550ku9001569; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3234354 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:15 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o858vFd5015247 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o858v8eq000203 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 08EB3405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050022 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100905085708.08EB3405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 015 Relocated To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 126.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 126.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 30.8N 125.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 32.0N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.1N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 34.5N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 37.3N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 38.7N 132.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 39.8N 138.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 126.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION, RESEMBLING A MONSOON GYRE PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICES EMERGING FROM THE CENTER AND ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GYRE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM A SMALLER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 35 KNOTS. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AFTER TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS 10W SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINC ZONE BY TAU 96 OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE RECURVING IT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W NEAR SOUTH KOREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.