Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 015 Relocated

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 03:57:07 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 015 RELOCATED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 29.5N 126.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.5N 126.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 30.8N 125.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 32.0N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 33.1N 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 34.5N 126.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 37.3N 128.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 38.7N 132.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 39.8N 138.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.8N 126.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION, RESEMBLING A MONSOON GYRE PATTERN, WITH
MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICES EMERGING FROM THE CENTER AND ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GYRE. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES STRONG GRADIENT WINDS
WITHIN THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM
A SMALLER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF 35 KNOTS. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD AND BEGIN ROUNDING THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS AFTER TAU 36, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA AFTER TAU 48.
DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS 10W SHOULD INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINC ZONE BY TAU 96 OVER THE
SEA OF JAPAN. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE NORTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE
RECURVING IT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE JGSM, UKMO, AND ECMWF MODELS, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W NEAR SOUTH
KOREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//

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