From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 5 22:28:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o85ESPbR016795 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 22:28:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8550kMb001569; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3237377 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:12 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85ESC04011045 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85ES5tP002134 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 50954405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=76 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050059 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100905142805.50954405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 09:28:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 16// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CIRCULATION, RESEMBLING A MONSOON GYRE PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE SMALLER VORTICES EMERGING FROM THE CENTER AND ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE GYRE. A 051037Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TS 10W HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH HAS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN RELOCATED FROM A SMALLER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. BASED ON THE NEW POSITIONING, THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EAST. B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, BEGIN TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AFTER TAU 24, AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTH KOREA. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, TS 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS MALOU SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD TRACK, HOWEVER THE MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD AT DIFFERENT TIMES. THE ECMWF, WBAR, AND GFS MODELS RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOONER. THE GFDN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER THAT TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE JGSM AND UKMO MODELS, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W AFTER REACHING SOUTH KOREA. C. BY TAU 72, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINC ZONE OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND BECOME A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.