Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 017

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:06 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 126.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 126.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 33.2N 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 34.9N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 36.3N 128.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 37.3N 131.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 38.3N 136.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 38.4N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 126.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES CYCLONICALLY ROTATING INTO THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A
051717Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 061726Z AMSU 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS, REVEAL A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING
SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EVIDENT IN THESE MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS
10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH KOREA AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO BE
ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. BY TAU 48, TS MALOU IS
FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS
WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWESTWARD AND POLEWARD,
RESPECTIVELY, IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS
21 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//

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