From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 04:22:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o85KMXhh028689 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 04:22:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85F7mFE014388; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3241015 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:13 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85KMD53007567 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85KM6iS017575 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3E166405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050129 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100905202206.3E166405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 15:22:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 017 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 31.6N 126.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 126.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 33.2N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 34.9N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 36.3N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 37.3N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 38.3N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 38.4N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 126.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES CYCLONICALLY ROTATING INTO THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS A 051717Z TRMM 85 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, AND A 061726Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, REVEAL A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EVIDENT IN THESE MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS CHEJU ISLAND AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY DUE TO FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. NEAR TAU 24, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH KOREA AND WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. BY TAU 48, TS MALOU IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWESTWARD AND POLEWARD, RESPECTIVELY, IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21 FEET. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.