From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 05:45:47 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o85LjkKR031044 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 05:45:47 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8550kfs001569; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3241500 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:32 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85LjWdH012684 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o85LjP5Z022295 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DD221405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:24 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050140 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100905214524.DD221405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:24 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 221 FXPQ60 PGUM 052145 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 745 AM CHST MON SEP 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5N AND 11N FROM 130E TO 180...MAINLY WEST OF 150E. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE SHOWS A DRY PATTERN FORMING FOR MICRONESIA. GFS40 AND ECMWF-HIRES MODELS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW LITTLE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES TO DROP SOME SHOWERS ONCE IN A WHILE. LEFT OVER MID CLOUDS WILL DIM THE SUNSHINE TODAY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD ALL THIS HANDLED WELL SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY AT POHNPEI FOLLOWING SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEARING THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MODELS SHOW SIMILAR DRY TRADES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBDUED ITCZ GENERALLY NORTH OF ALL SITES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS HINTS AT INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT STILL WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LEFT LONG-RANGE FORECAST UNCHANGED. FOR KOSRAE...A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE WHETHER THE WW3 WAVE FORECAST MODELS TONES THIS DOWN A BIT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CYCLE EAST OF YAP AND KOROR WHILE CLOSER TO BOTH SITES...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PROLONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TONIGHT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. FOR CHUUK... ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK. SHOWERS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF CHUUK WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS MORNING WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW AT POHNPEI ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING CHUUK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.