Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 16:45:24 -0500

221 
FXPQ60 PGUM 052145
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
745 AM CHST MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ALMOST NO SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5N
AND 11N FROM 130E TO 180...MAINLY WEST OF 150E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS A DRY PATTERN FORMING FOR MICRONESIA. GFS40 AND
ECMWF-HIRES MODELS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW LITTLE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES TO
DROP SOME SHOWERS ONCE IN A WHILE. LEFT OVER MID CLOUDS WILL DIM
THE SUNSHINE TODAY. PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD ALL THIS HANDLED WELL SO
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE 
BEEN ADDED IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY AT POHNPEI FOLLOWING 
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEARING THE ISLAND 
THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MODELS SHOW SIMILAR DRY TRADES 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBDUED ITCZ GENERALLY NORTH OF ALL SITES. 
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...GFS HINTS AT INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR 
POHNPEI AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES...BUT STILL WITH LITTLE 
AGREEMENT FROM THE OTHER MODELS HAVE LEFT LONG-RANGE FORECAST 
UNCHANGED. FOR KOSRAE...A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS OF A HIGH 
SURF ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WITH THE 
ARRIVAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. THIS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEE WHETHER 
THE WW3 WAVE FORECAST MODELS TONES THIS DOWN A BIT. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO CYCLE EAST OF YAP 
AND KOROR WHILE CLOSER TO BOTH SITES...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED 
SOMEWHAT. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PROLONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH CONTINUED WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE 
AREA OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BEGIN 
TONIGHT FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. FOR CHUUK... 
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK. SHOWERS CURRENTLY 
JUST NORTH OF CHUUK WILL MOVE WESTWARD THIS MORNING WHILE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS NOW AT POHNPEI ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BEFORE 
REACHING CHUUK. 

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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