From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 10:21:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o862Lel2011432 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 10:21:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8550knB001569; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3243249 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:11 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862LAtC028952 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862L4NA011592 for ; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 05D16405001E; Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=21 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050177 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906022104.05D16405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 5 Sep 2010 21:21:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 18// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 052303Z 37H SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WHICH INDICATES MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICES MAY STILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJD, AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON CHEJU ISLAND INDICATING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS (23 KNOTS AT 00Z AND 27 KNOTS AT 01Z). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPINGING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO CROSS CHEJU ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN SOUTH KOREA. BY TAU 36, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 48, AND GFDN WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH KOREA. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT PACKING OF GFS, JGSM, ECMWF, EGRR, AND WBAR.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.