Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:55:53 -0500

875 
FXPQ60 PGUM 060655
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
455 PM CHST MON SEP 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS FORMED DOWNWIND OF GUAM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SAW ONLY SMALL
ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE
MARIANAS NEAR 18N137E THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. THE UPPER-LOW THAT CONTRIBUTED TO
THE CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CLOUD COVER THINNING OUT
SO CHANGED MOSTLY CLOUDY IN TONIGHTS FORECAST TO PARTLY
CLOUDY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EAST TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS WEEK. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA RELATIVELY DRY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE NEXT TEN DAY. THE GFS
MODEL DID HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR AWAY LEFT IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF AROUND FOUR FEET WHIT A PERIOD OF
8 T 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECT ONLY A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL EXPOSURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN POHNPEI 
CLEARED OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE THE FAIRLY DRY TRADE 
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS INTRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR 
MAJURO ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRIDAY ARRIVAL. FOR NOW 
WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BOTH DAYS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS 
A POSSIBILITY FOR KOSRAE WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY 
NIGHT AS THE WW3 BRINGS IN A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. 
THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION IS TRENDING DOWNWARD ACROSS YAP AND KOROR WITH ANOTHER 
SURGE ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO 
TUESDAY FOR KOROR. GFS AND ECMWF INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN 
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST BRING WINDS 
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED. CHUUK REMAINS 
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM 
EASTERN MICRONESIA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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