From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 14:56:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o866uIBN026667 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 14:56:19 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJx5001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:56:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3245680 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:56:02 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o866u2FR018237 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:56:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o866tsNq022069 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:56:01 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 38214405001E; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:55:53 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009050220 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906065554.38214405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 01:55:53 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 875 FXPQ60 PGUM 060655 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 455 PM CHST MON SEP 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS FORMED DOWNWIND OF GUAM DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MOST AREAS SAW ONLY SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 18N137E THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. THE UPPER-LOW THAT CONTRIBUTED TO THE CLOUDY AND WET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND HAS MOVED WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS CLOUD COVER THINNING OUT SO CHANGED MOSTLY CLOUDY IN TONIGHTS FORECAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EAST TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS WEEK. WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE AREA RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED THE NEXT TEN DAY. THE GFS MODEL DID HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SINCE THIS IS SO FAR AWAY LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MARINE... EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF AROUND FOUR FEET WHIT A PERIOD OF 8 T 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXPECT ONLY A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL EXPOSURES THROUGH THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN POHNPEI CLEARED OUT AS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE THE FAIRLY DRY TRADE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. GFS INTRODUCES SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MAJURO ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SUGGESTS A FRIDAY ARRIVAL. FOR NOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BOTH DAYS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR KOSRAE WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WW3 BRINGS IN A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION IS TRENDING DOWNWARD ACROSS YAP AND KOROR WITH ANOTHER SURGE ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF YAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO TUESDAY FOR KOROR. GFS AND ECMWF INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST BRING WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH SHOWERS REMAINING ISOLATED. CHUUK REMAINS PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.