Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 019

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:32:05 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 32.4N 126.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 126.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 33.9N 127.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 35.3N 129.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 36.5N 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 37.0N 136.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 37.0N 144.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM
SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD
LLCC DEPICTED IN THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060450Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PGTW, RJTD
AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 060108Z
SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOT WINDS WITH LIGHTER CENTRAL WINDS.
OBSERVATIONS FROM CHEJU ISLAND ARE REPORTING 18 TO 20 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAIN GOOD. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 10W
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND IN SOUTH KOREA BY TAU 24.
BY TAU 36 IT SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITDUE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH
RECURVES TS 10W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//

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