From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 16:43:51 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o868hn9Z032399 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:43:50 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJxh001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3246306 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:14 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o868hEJX025778 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o868h7HR025687 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0155F405001F; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060017 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906084307.0155F405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 03:43:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 019 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 32.4N 126.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 126.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 33.9N 127.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 35.3N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 36.5N 132.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 37.0N 136.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 37.0N 144.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 126.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD LLCC DEPICTED IN THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 060450Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER THAN THE PGTW, RJTD AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON A 060108Z SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 25 KNOT WINDS WITH LIGHTER CENTRAL WINDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM CHEJU ISLAND ARE REPORTING 18 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD. TS MALOU IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTERLY AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND IN SOUTH KOREA BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36 IT SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS, WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH RECURVES TS 10W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. 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