From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 6 21:51:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o86DpPVi012781 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 21:51:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJ5p001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3248701 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86DpC0p019597 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86Dp4uU016058 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C39BA405001E; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060075 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906135104.C39BA405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 08:51:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 20// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061025Z 91H SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEPER CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND A RJTD RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS 35 KNOT WIND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON CHEJU ISLAND (40 NM TO THE NORTHEAST) HAVE BEEN INDICATING 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED INTO THE WESTERLIES AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, THIS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTER TO THE RIGHT WITH A FASTER RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF CHEJU ISLAND AND IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TS MALOU IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH WITHIN 12 HOURS. BY TAU 24, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT PACKING OF GFS, JGSM, ECMWF, EGRR, AND WBAR, WHICH RECURVE TS 10W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. // +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.