Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 021

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:06 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 33.1N 127.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 127.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 34.0N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 35.0N 130.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 35.6N 133.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 35.9N 137.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 36.6N 145.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 127.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ELONGATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU,
JAPAN, SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TS 10W HAS COMPLETED ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS
NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
COMMENCES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 36 THEN EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN BY TAU 60 AS A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH
SEEM TO LOSE THE VORTEX AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECAST IS INITIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THEN OVER BUT FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//

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