From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 04:01:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o86K1VqO027297 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 04:01:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJLv001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3252566 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:14 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86K1EJA019655 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86K17uJ021938 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 1963D405001F; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060154 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906200107.1963D405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 15:01:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 021 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 33.1N 127.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 127.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 34.0N 128.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.0N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 35.6N 133.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 35.9N 137.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 36.6N 145.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 33.3N 127.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN, SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TS 10W HAS COMPLETED ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMMENCES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 36 THEN EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY TAU 60 AS A WEAK BAROCLINIC LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS WHICH SEEM TO LOSE THE VORTEX AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THEN OVER BUT FASTER THAN CONSENSUS BEYOND TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.