Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:32:57 -0500

792 
FXPQ60 PGUM 062132
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
732 AM CHST TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
MARIANAS. AN AREA OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO VISIBLE
JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH TWO CELLS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
WEST OF 140E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS EXPECT THE NEXT WEEK OR SO TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...WITH
THE GFS40 GIVING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN AND THE ECMWF-HIRES GIVING
ABOUT TWO INCHES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
PERSISTENCE. THE INHERITED PACKAGE HAD THIS COVERED WELL SO NO
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT 
THE ISOLATED CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ARE ONLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO 
SHEARING FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STILL HINT AT 
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE LATER THIS WEEK BUT NOT 
QUITE ENOUGH TO GO WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT POHNPEI FOR FRI AND SAT FOLLOWING BETTER 
MODEL CONSENSUS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. WAVEWATCH MODEL 
CONTINUES TO POINT TO HIGH SURF CRITERIA BEING MET BY EARLY WED 
MORNING AT KOSRAE. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS THAT LARGER SWELLS HAVE KEPT 
NEAR THE EQUATOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEA HEIGHTS NEARER 
KOSRAE LIKELY JUST BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN MODEL DATA OR SEA HEIGHTS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK WILL REMAIN UNDER A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT STRETCHES 
OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL SCATTERED 
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM NEAR POHNPEI BY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND PALAU...BUT WITH 
THE EXCEPTION OF PALAU...MOST SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWEST. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT PALAU ARE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE LATER TODAY WITH 
AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF THE 
WEEK. FOR FRI AND SAT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...A SURFACE TROUGH OR 
A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR PALAU AND EVENTUALLY 
MOVE WEST. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE TREND ONLY SO FAR AS TO KEEP THE 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE 
WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SEEM TO BE A BIT OF A 
STRETCH FOR NOW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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