From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 05:33:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o86LXOWv030361 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 05:33:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJQW001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:33:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3253476 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:33:04 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86LX4oN027921 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:33:04 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o86LWvTD012044 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:33:03 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6C15A4050022; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:32:57 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060174 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100906213257.6C15A4050022@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 16:32:57 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 792 FXPQ60 PGUM 062132 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 732 AM CHST TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. AN AREA OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO VISIBLE JUST SOUTH OF GUAM. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH TWO CELLS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEST OF 140E. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS EXPECT THE NEXT WEEK OR SO TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY...WITH THE GFS40 GIVING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN AND THE ECMWF-HIRES GIVING ABOUT TWO INCHES. THIS AGREES WELL WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND PERSISTENCE. THE INHERITED PACKAGE HAD THIS COVERED WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE ISOLATED CELLS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ARE ONLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO SHEARING FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS STILL HINT AT INCREASED PRECIPITATION AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE LATER THIS WEEK BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO GO WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT POHNPEI FOR FRI AND SAT FOLLOWING BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. WAVEWATCH MODEL CONTINUES TO POINT TO HIGH SURF CRITERIA BEING MET BY EARLY WED MORNING AT KOSRAE. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS THAT LARGER SWELLS HAVE KEPT NEAR THE EQUATOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SEA HEIGHTS NEARER KOSRAE LIKELY JUST BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES IN MODEL DATA OR SEA HEIGHTS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK WILL REMAIN UNDER A FAIRLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN THAT STRETCHES OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM NEAR POHNPEI BY SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR YAP AND PALAU...BUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PALAU...MOST SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AT PALAU ARE EXPECTED TO DWINDLE LATER TODAY WITH AN OVERALL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR FRI AND SAT...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...A SURFACE TROUGH OR A WEAK CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR PALAU AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WEST. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE TREND ONLY SO FAR AS TO KEEP THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL SEEM TO BE A BIT OF A STRETCH FOR NOW. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.