From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 09:31:29 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o871VSXQ008899 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 09:31:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o862qJbD001569; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3255767 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:12 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o871VCoQ015263 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o871V5LL007541 for ; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 211D4405001F; Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060217 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907013105.211D4405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 22// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN33 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ELONGATION OF THE MAIN CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN, AND A 062332Z 1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND IS SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TS 10W IS NOW POLEWARD OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST-EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY EXCEPT THAT THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS. B. TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMMENCES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 24 THEN EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN AFTER TAU 36 AS A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND NOGAPS FAVORING A TRACK LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.