Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 10w Warning Nr 22//

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 2010 20:31:04 -0500

WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
NORTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ELONGATION OF THE MAIN CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO
STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU,
JAPAN, AND A 062332Z 1-KM RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND
IS SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TS 10W IS NOW POLEWARD
OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED WEST-EAST JUST TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY EXCEPT THAT THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS.
   B. TS MALOU IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT COMMENCES
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERLIES MENTIONED ABOVE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HONSHU BY TAU 24 THEN EXIT INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AFTER TAU 36 AS A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR GFDN AND
NOGAPS FAVORING A TRACK LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.//

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