From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 14:58:54 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o876wr5o023221 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 14:58:53 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87506ug001569; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:33 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3259663 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:33 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o876wXPH013058 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:33 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o876wQ8f022443 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:32 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9E958405001F; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:26 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009060262 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907065826.9E958405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:26 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 672 FXPQ60 PGUM 070658 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 458 PM CHST TUE SEP 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS... GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER LOW IS PRESENT WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...WITH A TUTT EXTENDING WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA NORTHWEST OF PALAU. && .DISCUSSION... GFS/UKMET KEEP THINGS QUIET THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH GENTLE TRADES AND FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THUS...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE. THE TUTT BETWEEN THE MARIANAS AND WAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MARIANAS AND ITS WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. && .MARINE... EAST SWELL WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. RIP STAYS AT LOW FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEAST COMPONENT COULD ELEVATE RISK TO MODERATE ON SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FACING REEFS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... THE REGION REMAINS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED SHOWER COVERAGE UP TO SCATTERED FOR MAJURO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. LIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION OUT NEAR THE DATELINE. GFS BRINGS AN END TO THE SHOWERS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER MAJURO TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT LEFT AT ISOLATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR KOSRAE AS WAVEWATCH HAS MAINTAINED SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS GIVE A SURF HEIGHT AROUND 8.5 FT ON WEDNESDAY. WAVEWATCH GRADUALLY DECREASES WAVE HEIGHTS LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... ISOLATED SHOWERS RESUME CONTROL OF THE REGION AS THIS MORNINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN TO THE EAST WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MODELS PROG A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND ON FRIDAY FOR YAP AND KOROR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT IS TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ATTEMPT A COMEBACK THIS WEEKEND...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT ISOLATED. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT/GUARD +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.