Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 01:58:26 -0500

672 
FXPQ60 PGUM 070658
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
458 PM CHST TUE SEP 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS.
AN UPPER LOW IS PRESENT WEST OF WAKE ISLAND...WITH A TUTT
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA NORTHWEST
OF PALAU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS/UKMET KEEP THINGS QUIET THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH GENTLE
TRADES AND FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THUS...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE. THE TUTT BETWEEN THE
MARIANAS AND WAKE COULD PRODUCE SOME RAINSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE MARIANAS AND ITS WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST SWELL WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK. RIP STAYS
AT LOW FOR NOW...BUT INCREASING SOUTHEAST COMPONENT COULD ELEVATE
RISK TO MODERATE ON SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FACING REEFS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE REGION REMAINS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED 
SHOWER COVERAGE UP TO SCATTERED FOR MAJURO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW 
BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. LIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED TODAY 
WITH DEEP CONVECTION OUT NEAR THE DATELINE. GFS BRINGS AN END TO THE 
SHOWERS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER 
MAJURO TOMORROW WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT LEFT 
AT ISOLATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT 
TONIGHT FOR KOSRAE AS WAVEWATCH HAS MAINTAINED SIGNIFICANT SWELL 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED PERIODS 
GIVE A SURF HEIGHT AROUND 8.5 FT ON WEDNESDAY. WAVEWATCH GRADUALLY 
DECREASES WAVE HEIGHTS LATE THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN 
THE FORECAST FOR POHNPEI FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS RESUME CONTROL OF THE REGION AS THIS MORNINGS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 
DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN TO THE EAST WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE 
WEEK. MODELS PROG A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND ON FRIDAY FOR YAP AND 
KOROR ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT IS TO LIFT 
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ATTEMPT A COMEBACK THIS 
WEEKEND...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT ISOLATED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT/GUARD

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