Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 023

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:05 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 023
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 34.9N 130.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 130.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 35.7N 133.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 36.1N 137.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 36.7N 143.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 130.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 10W HAS STARTED TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN
TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING WARM CORE. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF
A DELTA RAIN REGION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS
CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS NOW
TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES, WHICH
RANGE FROM 35-45 KNOTS (CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KNOTS). THIS
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND
WHICH INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND
NEAR 07/03Z. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25
KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY
08/11Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//

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