From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 15:59:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o877xjQF026034 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:59:46 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87506va001569; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3259977 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:14 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o877xEI2017052 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o877x5d1018451 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 4693A405001F; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009070009 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907075905.4693A405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 02:59:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 023 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 34.9N 130.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.9N 130.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 35.7N 133.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 36.1N 137.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 36.7N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 35.1N 130.9E. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS 10W HAS STARTED TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING WARM CORE. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A DELTA RAIN REGION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY COMMENCED EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS NOW TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 35-45 KNOTS (CI ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-55 KNOTS). THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND WHICH INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 22 GUSTING TO 31 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP OF 999 MB AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED DIRECTLY OVER THE ISLAND NEAR 07/03Z. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY 08/11Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.