From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 7 21:24:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o87DOcJ2012040 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 21:24:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o875065X001569; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3262314 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:22 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87DOMkZ011100 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87DOFYc021352 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 589354050020; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:15 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=1 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009070060 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907132415.589354050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:15 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 024 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN33 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 35.4N 131.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEAT POSIT: 35.4N 131.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 35.9N 136.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 36.0N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 36.5N 147.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 133.0E. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 10W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS 10W IS INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY WEAKENING WARM CORE. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY COMMENCED ETT AND IS NOW TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 30-45 KNOTS. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY 08/09Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.