Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 10w (malou) Warning Nr 024

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 08:24:15 -0500

WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU) WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 35.4N 131.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 35.4N 131.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 35.9N 136.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 36.0N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 36.5N 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 35.5N 133.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (MALOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM WEST OF
KYOTO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS
10W CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). TS 10W IS INTERACTING WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER
THE SEA OF JAPAN AND HAS BEGUN TO ATTAIN A FRONTAL SIGNATURE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING WARM CORE. BASED ON THIS EVIDENCE, THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY
COMMENCED ETT AND IS NOW TRACKING WITHIN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW UNDER 30-40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON JMA RADAR DATA. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES, WHICH RANGE FROM 30-45 KNOTS. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE NEXT
06-12 HOURS. MALOU SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE JAPAN ALPS, SO EXPECT A 20-25 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN BY 08/09Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13
FEET.//

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