Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:06 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 072000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 122.2E TO 21.8N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT
IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 071900Z INDICATE THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2. REMARKS: THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN PARA 1 IS
NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY,
FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS HINDERING
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE TUTT CELL
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
EXPOSED TO MODERATE-HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE FORECAST IT TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
082000Z.//

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