From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 8 04:00:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o87K0a9D030664 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 04:00:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87I4o9J001569; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3273228 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:14 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87K0D2B009465 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87K07AO006468 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 105A2405001E; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=6 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009070143 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907200007.105A2405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 15:00:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 072000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 122.2E TO 21.8N 118.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA AT 071900Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2. REMARKS: THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN PARA 1 IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ADDITIONALLY, FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BEGUN TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS HINDERING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE TUTT CELL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY WESTWARD. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY EXPOSED TO MODERATE-HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA WITH LOWER VWS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE FORECAST IT TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY 082000Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.