Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:46:57 -0500

438 
FXPQ60 PGUM 072146
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
746 AM CHST WED SEP 8 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE MARIANAS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS STARTING TONIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
4N AND 9N FROM 135E TO 180.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SUGGESTED LITTLE CHANGE...BUT BASED ON THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY IF THE LOW IS STILL IN THE AREA.
OTHERWISE EVERYTHING STILL SEEMED TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE SO LITTLE
CHANGE WAS NEEDED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW BAND OF TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS POHNPEI AND MAJURO...BUT NORTH OF 
KOSRAE. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE LOW ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO THE 
FIRST COUPLE PERIODS RELY A BIT MORE SATELLITE DATA. SHORT PERIODS 
OF ALTERNATING SCATTERED AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD OR 
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEARS TO 
BE TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MAJURO...THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KOSRAE...AND 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR POHNPEI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR KOSRAE ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORES. WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS 
COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH 
SURF FALLING BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED JUST EAST OF CHUUK ALONG A BAND OF 
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS KEEP 
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHORT-LIVED NEAR CHUUK SO HAVE JUST LEFT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR YAP 
AND PALAU SO LEFT THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT AS IT WAS WITH MINOR 
TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION CHANGES. A TUTT CELL EAST OF 
THE MARIANAS COULD INCREASE SHOWERS AT YAP AND PALAU FRIDAY OR 
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE AREA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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