From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 8 05:47:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o87LlSnd002324 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 05:47:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87I4oQt001569; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:47:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3276185 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:47:07 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87Ll6W7026081 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:47:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o87LkvAi002411 for ; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:47:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BCEB84050020; Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:46:57 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009070168 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100907214657.BCEB84050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 7 Sep 2010 16:46:57 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 438 FXPQ60 PGUM 072146 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 746 AM CHST WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE MARIANAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MARIANAS STARTING TONIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4N AND 9N FROM 135E TO 180. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS SUGGESTED LITTLE CHANGE...BUT BASED ON THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY IF THE LOW IS STILL IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING STILL SEEMED TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A NARROW BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS POHNPEI AND MAJURO...BUT NORTH OF KOSRAE. MODELS SEEM A LITTLE LOW ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SO THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS RELY A BIT MORE SATELLITE DATA. SHORT PERIODS OF ALTERNATING SCATTERED AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD OR SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE TODAY AND TONIGHT AT MAJURO...THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KOSRAE...AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR POHNPEI. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORES. WAVEWATCH MODEL SHOWS COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS BY FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED JUST EAST OF CHUUK ALONG A BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS SHORT-LIVED NEAR CHUUK SO HAVE JUST LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR TODAY...HOWEVER...THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR YAP AND PALAU SO LEFT THE FORECAST JUST ABOUT AS IT WAS WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION CHANGES. A TUTT CELL EAST OF THE MARIANAS COULD INCREASE SHOWERS AT YAP AND PALAU FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW MODELS KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE AREA. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.