From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 8 15:10:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o887Ad6p027229 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:10:40 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8836x4u001569; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:10:07 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3284158 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:10:07 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o887A62w022007 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:10:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8879xT9019083 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:10:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5AB874050020; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:09:59 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009070268 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100908070959.5AB874050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:09:59 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 964 FXPQ60 PGUM 080709 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 509 PM CHST WED SEP 8 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS IS CRAWLING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR 150E ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW. && .DISCUSSION... NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS MODELS SUGGESTED LITTLE CHANGE. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT WAS EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES THE MARIANAS. ECMWF PROVIDES A GOOD SOAKING...BUT STUCK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS. IF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MODELS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ITCZ ACTIVE BETWEEN 5N AND 10N AND AFFECTING ALL MONITORED ISLANDS FROM CHUUK EASTWARD. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS HAVE EACH ISLAND GROUP MOVING IN AND OUT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH NO REAL CONSISTENCY FROM ONE MODEL TO THE NEXT. BEST TO KEEP THE FOUR ISLANDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIT AND MISS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. ONE EXCEPTION IS FOR KOSRAE WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE ITCZ FURTHER NORTH BY THE WEEKEND FOR THIS AREA. .MARINE...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE ALONG EAST- AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES. WAVEWATCH MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT AND SHOWS COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS PEAKING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW THE 8FT CRITERION LEVELS BY FRIDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...WEATHER FOR CHUUK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FOR POHNPEI AND MAJURO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND IN AND OUT SCATTERED SHOWER CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A WEAK WAVE APPEARS READY TO MOVE INTO THE CHUUK FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR YAP AND PALAU REMAINS THE SAME WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TUTT CELL CURRENTLY OVER THE MARIANAS MAY HELP DRAW THE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ FURTHER NORTH BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THESE UPPER-AIR FEATURES. RIGHT NOW...SURFACE WINDS ARE ALL FROM THE EAST DOWN TO THE EQUATOR WITH NO MONSOON IN SIGHT...A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ M. AYDLETT/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.