Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (eleven) Warning Nr 002

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:15 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 119.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 119.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.9N 118.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 22.8N 117.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 24.1N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 25.5N 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 119.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL EAST OF TAIWAN. A 080209Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE
CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP NEAR 995 MB AND 35-45 KNOT
SURFACE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT,
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLP VALUE. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING
AND WARRANTS UPGRADE TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON THE AVAILABLE EVIDENCE.
TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL CHINA. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
40-45 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MODEL
TRACKERS, WHICH ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, WBAR, GFDN AND GFS, PLUS
ECMWF AND UKMO FIELDS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z.//

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