From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 8 15:51:02 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o887p0qo028587 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:51:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8836x5e001569; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3284349 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:23 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o887oNx4024790 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o887oFLM010608 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D770C4050020; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:15 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009080007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100908075015.D770C4050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 02:50:15 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (eleven) Warning Nr 002 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 119.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 119.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 21.9N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 22.8N 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 24.1N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 25.5N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 119.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL EAST OF TAIWAN. A 080209Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS NUMEROUS 30-35 KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30-35 KNOTS. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER INDICATE SLP NEAR 995 MB AND 35-45 KNOT SURFACE WINDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT, DVORAK ESTIMATES AND SLP VALUE. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING AND WARRANTS UPGRADE TO TS STRENGTH BASED ON THE AVAILABLE EVIDENCE. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN CENTRAL CHINA. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 40-45 KNOTS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. MODEL TRACKERS, WHICH ARE LIMITED TO NOGAPS, WBAR, GFDN AND GFS, PLUS ECMWF AND UKMO FIELDS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.