From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 9 04:25:43 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o88KPgcs028175 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 04:25:43 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o884mYvB001501; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3294194 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:19 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88KPJZ9027132 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88KPCff004621 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:18 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 98225405001F; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:12 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009080147 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100908202512.98225405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 15:25:12 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (eleven) Warning Nr 004 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 118.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 118.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 21.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 22.5N 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 23.5N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 24.8N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 118.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION ARE BASED ON ANIMATED IR IMAGERY WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AND CONTINUING TO IMPINGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A LOW TO MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) STATIONED SOUTH OF MAINLAND JAPAN. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE STR AND DRIVES THE SYSTEM POLEWARD FASTER AND SOONER. GFDN, WBAR, NGPS, ECMWF, AND JGSM MODEL TRACKERS HAVE ALL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS 12Z TRACKERS, INDICATING THE STEERING RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SOONER THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED GFS POLEWARD BIAS AND UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM HONG KONG, AND SHANTOU, CHINA INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. 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