From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 9 05:43:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o88LhTOb030593 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 05:43:30 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88IPcBZ001569; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3295764 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:47 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88Lgl3a007752 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:47 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88LgdmD004352 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:46 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 54549405001E; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:39 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009080162 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100908214239.54549405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:39 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 243 FXPQ60 PGUM 082142 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 742 AM CHST THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL CREATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARIANAS THROUGH TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... EXTEND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE FORECAST LEFT AS IS. UPPER-LOW NEAR 20N155E THIS MORNING IS MOVING WEST. IT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A FEW OF THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW MODELS HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH SO LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... SMALL EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY SOUTHEAST SWELLS ON FRIDAY. THESES SWELLS WERE GENERATED BY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND HAVE A LONGER PERIOD. THEY WILL INCREASE SURF ON EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS A BIT...ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE SHOWS ESTABLISHED CONVECTION ALONG A WELL DEFINED ITCZ SPANNING FROM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK TO THE MARSHALLS. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY BEGINNING AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE FRIDAY AND POHNPEI FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE PUSHES NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS MAY PROVIDE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO TODAY BUT MODELS TEND TO WASH THIS FEATURE OUT AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WW3 MODEL STILL SHOWS SE SWELL ARRIVING AT KOSRAE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HIGH SURF OF SOUTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES. CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN END TO THE HIGH SURF EVENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS YET TO REACH CHUUK BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE EAST SO TRENDED FOR A DELAYED ONSET OF SHOWERS BY NOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITCZ RELATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND FOR CHUUK BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF PUSHING ZONE NORTHWARD SO LEFT ISOLATED UNTIL MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY. EASTERLY TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PALAU AND YAP REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.