Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 16:42:39 -0500

243 
FXPQ60 PGUM 082142
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
742 AM CHST THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC
WILL CREATE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MARIANAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTEND THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LEFT AS IS. UPPER-LOW NEAR 20N155E THIS MORNING IS
MOVING WEST. IT IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A FEW OF THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EAST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN SPEED OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW
MODELS HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH SO LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY
SOUTHEAST SWELLS ON FRIDAY. THESES SWELLS WERE GENERATED BY WINDS
IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE AND HAVE A LONGER PERIOD. THEY WILL
INCREASE SURF ON EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS A BIT...ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS ESTABLISHED CONVECTION ALONG A WELL DEFINED ITCZ
SPANNING FROM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK TO THE MARSHALLS. EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY BEGINNING AT MAJURO AND KOSRAE
FRIDAY AND POHNPEI FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CONVERGENT ZONE PUSHES
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH APPROACHING THE
MARSHALLS MAY PROVIDE INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER MAJURO TODAY
BUT MODELS TEND TO WASH THIS FEATURE OUT AS IT PROGRESSES
WESTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
WW3 MODEL STILL SHOWS SE SWELL ARRIVING AT KOSRAE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING HIGH SURF OF SOUTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES.
CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN END TO THE HIGH SURF EVENT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ HAS YET TO REACH CHUUK BUT IR
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE EAST SO
TRENDED FOR A DELAYED ONSET OF SHOWERS BY NOON. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ITCZ RELATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND FOR CHUUK
BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF PUSHING ZONE
NORTHWARD SO LEFT ISOLATED UNTIL MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME
CONSISTENCY. EASTERLY TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PALAU AND YAP REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELATIVELY
DRY PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO MAJOR FEATURE
AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT

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