From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 9 10:48:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o892meHe013295 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 10:48:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o88IPcSu001569; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3298759 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:16 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o892mGpB003646 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o892m9aZ028910 for ; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 5B156405001E; Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:09 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009080208 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100909024809.5B156405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 21:48:09 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Tropical Storm 11w Warning Nr 05// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE CENTER AND BEING SHEARED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL, WHICH HAS REFLECTED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HAS CAUSED TS 11W TO SLOW AND MAKE AN ABRUPT NORTHEASTWARD TURN FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION BASED ON MSI, THE TAIWAN RADAR LOOP, AND A 082332Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO A POLEWARD TRACK BASED ON RECENT MSI DEPICTING BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TUTT CELL NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. B. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO DCI WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT CELL. BY TAU 12, TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD, THEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD, NEAR TAU 24, AS THE TUTT CELL MOVES FURTHER OVER EASTERN CHINA AND INDUCES A SLIGHT CYCLONIC ROTATION. TS 11W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK POLEWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN WHICH IS AN OUTLIER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS GFDN, AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING OF WBAR, NGPS, JGSM, ECMWF, AND GFS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.