From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 9 15:29:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o897TXtg029862 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:29:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o896VgGX022418; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3302065 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:11 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o897TBn8025935 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o897T4it018513 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 411D2405001E; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:02 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009090006 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100909072902.411D2405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:02 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 769 FXPQ60 PGUM 090728 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 528 PM CHST THU SEP 9 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. MODELS WANT TO BRING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS BY TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS TOO FAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE MARIANAS AND SCATTEROMETER DOES NOT SHOW ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL TUESDAY. KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A FEW OF THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AS THEY DID THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH SO LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS HAVE A LONGER PERIOD AND WILL INCREASE SURF ON EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS A BIT...ENOUGH TO GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COMING TO AN END IN MAJURO... KWAJALEIN...AND EVENTUALLY KOSRAE. THE FORECAST HAD LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BEING REDUCED TO ISOLATED FOR MAJURO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR POHNPEI THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND WHEN GFS TRIES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. WW3 MODEL STILL SHOWS SE SWELL ARRIVING AT KOSRAE CAPABLE OF GENERATING HIGH SURF ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES. CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN END TO THE HIGH SURF EVENT FRIDAY MORNING AS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS THAT SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. GFS BRINGS THESE SHOWERS TO AN END...BUT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS A WAVE MOVES WESTWARD FROM POHNPEI. YAP AND PALAU REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. DECIDED TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM GUAM. GFS WANTS TO SEND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND PALAU ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST UNTIL A TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.