Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 02:29:02 -0500

769 
FXPQ60 PGUM 090728
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
528 PM CHST THU SEP 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH
PACIFIC WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. MODELS WANT TO BRING IN SOUTHEAST
WINDS BY TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS TOO FAST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE
WINDS EAST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE MARIANAS AND SCATTEROMETER DOES
NOT SHOW ANY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL
TUESDAY. 

KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF
THE ISLANDS IS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AND
IT IS LIKELY THAT A FEW OF THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MARIANAS
TONIGHT AS THEY DID THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS HINT AT AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH SO
LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS HAVE A LONGER PERIOD AND WILL
INCREASE SURF ON EAST AND SOUTH FACING REEFS A BIT...ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE COMING TO AN END IN MAJURO... 
KWAJALEIN...AND EVENTUALLY KOSRAE. THE FORECAST HAD LITTLE CHANGE 
EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS BEING REDUCED TO ISOLATED FOR MAJURO 
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR POHNPEI THROUGH FRIDAY 
NIGHT. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND WHEN GFS TRIES TO 
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
 
WW3 MODEL STILL SHOWS SE SWELL ARRIVING AT KOSRAE CAPABLE OF 
GENERATING HIGH SURF ON SOUTH AND EAST FACING EXPOSURES.
CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE AN END TO THE HIGH SURF EVENT
FRIDAY MORNING AS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT 18 TO
24 HOURS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS THAT SPREAD ACROSS 
EASTERN MICRONESIA. GFS BRINGS THESE SHOWERS TO AN END...BUT BRINGS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AS A WAVE MOVES WESTWARD FROM 
POHNPEI. YAP AND PALAU REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. 
DECIDED TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP ON FRIDAY AS A WAVE MOVES 
INTO THE AREA FROM GUAM. GFS WANTS TO SEND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP 
AND PALAU ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ISOLATED IN THE 
FORECAST UNTIL A TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT

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