From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 9 16:09:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8989ioU032425 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 16:09:44 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o896VgHZ022418; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3302299 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:16 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8989Emg028809 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89895JL009343 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2E677405001E; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009090010 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100909080905.2E677405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (meranti) Warning Nr 006 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 119.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 119.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 23.6N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 25.8N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 27.9N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 119.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090547Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR FIX FROM TAIWAN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. AN TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS MERANTI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CHINA. UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TS 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE REACHING LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING OF WBAR, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.