Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (meranti) Warning Nr 006

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 03:09:05 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 119.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 119.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 23.6N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 25.8N 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 27.9N 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 119.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 090547Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RADAR FIX FROM TAIWAN AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35
KNOTS. AN TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL HAS
CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA
BY TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TS MERANTI IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CHINA. UNDER THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, TS 11W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE REACHING
LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMO MODEL WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS TAIWAN. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL AND IS WITHIN THE TIGHT
MODEL PACKING OF WBAR, ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, AND GFS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.//

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