Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 11w (meranti) Warning Nr 008

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:06 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 118.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 118.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 26.8N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 28.7N 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 30.5N 119.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN ANIMATED RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN,
DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND A CONCENTRIC EYE-
WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX
HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR LOOP AND A 091742Z
AMSRE 36 GHZ PASS DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE. SINCE TY 11W IS A
MIDGET SYSTEM, DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE INTENSITY.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND DEFINED EYE-WALL IN MICROWAVE AND ON THE TAIWAN RADAR
LOOP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY MERANTI IS EXPERIENCING
ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS OVER TAIWAN. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD AND IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS.
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CHINA WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM IN THE STRAIT OF
TAIWAN AFTER TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//

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