From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 10 04:28:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o89KSYdK005893 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 04:28:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8851MHn022500; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3312484 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:14 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89KSEat017287 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89KS6mA005361 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 659FB405001E; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009090117 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100909202806.659FB405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 15:28:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 11w (meranti) Warning Nr 008 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 118.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 118.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 26.8N 118.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 28.7N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 30.5N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 118.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN ANIMATED RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN, DEPICTS A MIDGET SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND A CONCENTRIC EYE- WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR LOOP AND A 091742Z AMSRE 36 GHZ PASS DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE. SINCE TY 11W IS A MIDGET SYSTEM, DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE INTENSITY. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEFINED EYE-WALL IN MICROWAVE AND ON THE TAIWAN RADAR LOOP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY MERANTI IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL WEST OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER TAIWAN. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS. INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CHINA WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM IN THE STRAIT OF TAIWAN AFTER TAU 12. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.