From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 10 06:28:47 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o89MSjCL010991 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 06:28:46 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89K12WC022418; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3314628 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:24 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89MSNAD029987 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89MSGKk027861 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D233A405001E; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:16 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009090139 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100909222816.D233A405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:16 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 969 FXPQ60 PGUM 092228 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 828 AM CHST FRI SEP 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF YAP AND PALAU. ANOTHER AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF YAP AND PALAU WHICH INCLUDES CHUUK AND POHNPEI. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS SEEMED TO BE APPROACHING SCATTERED COVERAGE HERE IN THE MARIANAS THANKS TO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. NOW THOUGH THE DIURNAL MAX HAS PASSED. A CLEAR BACK EDGE TO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING IN. THEREFORE WILL BE ABLE TO LEAVE FORECAST AS IS...WHICH WAS ALREADY CLOUDIER THAN THE INHERITED PACKAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TUTT FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED ACTIVITY AGAIN TONIGHT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE MARSHALLS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVER MAJURO THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MAJURO...ACTING TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN CLOSE OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL INDICATED BY VARIOUS NWP SOLUTIONS. DRYING TREND HAS BEGUN AT KOSRAE AS SUBSIDENT FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. WW3 CONTINUES TO SHOW DECREASING SOUTHEAST SWELL THROUGH TODAY ALLOWING SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT KOSRAE. THIS LED TO THE DISCONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND EAST FACING REEFS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE RELATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT CHUUK TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE MODELS SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR AND IS GRADUALLY TRANSLATING WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER-LOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT YAP GIVEN THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A DIFFLUENT FIELD ALOFT. MODELS MANAGE SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK POORLY BUT COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP AND KOROR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR YAP. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.