Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 17:28:16 -0500

969 
FXPQ60 PGUM 092228
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
828 AM CHST FRI SEP 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CREATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WEST OF YAP AND PALAU. ANOTHER AREA OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF YAP AND PALAU
WHICH INCLUDES CHUUK AND POHNPEI. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS
CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SEEMED TO BE APPROACHING SCATTERED COVERAGE HERE IN THE
MARIANAS THANKS TO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/.
NOW THOUGH THE DIURNAL MAX HAS PASSED. A CLEAR BACK EDGE TO THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS IS MOVING IN. THEREFORE WILL BE ABLE TO LEAVE
FORECAST AS IS...WHICH WAS ALREADY CLOUDIER THAN THE INHERITED
PACKAGE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TUTT FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE MARSHALLS WILL PROVIDE A 
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVER MAJURO THIS MORNING...BUT 
EXPECT MOST OF ACTIVITY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF 
MAJURO...ACTING TO SUPPRESS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. CONVERGENCE ZONE 
WILL REMAIN CLOSE OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL INDICATED BY VARIOUS NWP 
SOLUTIONS. DRYING TREND HAS BEGUN AT KOSRAE AS SUBSIDENT FLOW 
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED AT POHNPEI TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE 
AREA BY LATE EVENING. 

WW3 CONTINUES TO SHOW DECREASING SOUTHEAST SWELL THROUGH TODAY 
ALLOWING SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT KOSRAE. THIS LED TO 
THE DISCONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND EAST 
FACING REEFS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE RELATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT 
CHUUK TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY BEFORE MODELS SHOW DRIER 
CONDITIONS FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER-LOW 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR AND IS 
GRADUALLY TRANSLATING WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER-LOW. 
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT YAP GIVEN THE 
JUXTAPOSITION OF A DIFFLUENT FIELD ALOFT. MODELS MANAGE SURFACE 
TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK POORLY BUT COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO YAP 
AND KOROR EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SATURDAY FOR YAP.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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