From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 10 09:56:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8A1uYrw020792 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 09:56:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89K12iP022418; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3316984 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:13 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8A1uDrf018048 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8A1u6tZ028530 for ; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C5FD1405001E; Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009090158 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100910015606.C5FD1405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2010 20:56:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 11w (meranti) Warning Nr 009 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (MERANTI) WARNING NR 009 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 11W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 25.7N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 28.3N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 30.3N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.3N 118.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MERANTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATE TS 11W MADE LANDFALL NEAR QUANZHOU, CHINA AROUND 09/21Z. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND PAST SIX HOUR MOTION BASED ON MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OVERALL WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN A 092319Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS AND IN THE TAIWAN RADAR LOOP. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STATIONED SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS IT RAPIDLY DISSIPATES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 24, DUE TO INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK NORTH OF SHANGHAI CHINA, AND REDEVELOP IN THE YELLOW SEA AS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.