From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 10 16:34:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8A8Ydp0014449 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:34:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o89K12C8022418; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3322235 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:11 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8A8YBV7020401 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8A8Y4pM004048 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 4E0BF405001E; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009100018 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100910083404.4E0BF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2010 03:34:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 843 FXPQ60 PGUM 100833 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 633 PM CHST FRI SEP 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS...SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL PUSH ENOUGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TO CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION... ONLY A FEW SMALL CHANGES TO FORECAST. WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEAST THAN EARLIER FORECAST INDICATED SO ADJUSTED NEW FORECAST TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. A CONCERN WAS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING MID AFTERNOON INDICATED A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING UP TOWARDS GUAM. THE CONCERN WAS THAT THIS WOULD INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS GUAM...EXPECT ISOLATED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT SHOWER COVERAGE. WITH ALL THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE AREA FIGURE THAT A LARGE AMOUNT OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL BLOW OFF CLOUDS WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. MODELS STILL HINT AT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MARIANAS SUNDAY. UKMET...WHICH HAD CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THIS AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS...NOW SEEMS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT IT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED UNTIL MORE IS KNOWN. MODELS SEEM TO DIVERGE ON WIND DIRECTION FROM DAY 5...TUESDAY... ONWARDS WITH ONE MODEL NORTHEAST AND ANOTHER SOUTHEAST. SO LEFT FORECAST AS IS...WITH EAST WINDS...UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME BETTER ADJUSTED. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST SWELL OF ABOUT FOUR FEET IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH PROPAGATING THROUGH THE MARSHALLS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MARSHALLS THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL STAY NORTH OF WESTERN KIRIBATI AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MORE EQUATORIAL LATITUDES. WHILE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL REMAIN NEAR MAJURO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...VARIOUS NWP MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE COULD BE LOTS OF VARIABILITY IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS RAINFALL. DRYING TREND HAS BEGUN AT KOSRAE AS SUBSIDENT FLOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT POHNPEI BY SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA TONIGHT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE-RELATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO CHUUK ON SATURDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. AN UPPER- LOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF YAP AND KOROR...BUT IS WANING IN AFFECT AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES WESTWARD. DESPITE THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT YAP DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A DIFFLUENT WIND FIELD ALOFT. A THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED AT YAP DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A TROUGH OVER YAP WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. NEED FURTHER CLARIFICATION FROM FUTURE MODELS AND/ OR ANALYSES TO SEE HOW THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/DEVITA/GUARD +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.