Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:27 -0500

735 
FXPQ60 PGUM 102151
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 AM CHST SAT SEP 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT TO EXIT THE MARIANAS
WATERS TO THE WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH /TUTT/ AND A BAND EXTENDS FROM 130E TO THE DATELINE. A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
6N TO 14N FROM 151E TO 156E. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS CREATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 6N AND 13N FROM 168E TO THE DATELINE AND
BEYOND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK MAY END UP INFLUENCING WEATHER IN THE
MARIANAS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE GFS40 SUGGESTED THIS BUT DID NOT
SEEM TO INITIALIZED IT VERY WELL. THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL RECOMMEND DAY SHIFT WATCHES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF RUNS. JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST FEW HOURS FOR SOME TUTT
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...ENHANCED BY THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD START DIMINISHING SOON...PERHAPS 24 HOURS.
THIS SWELL HAS BEEN COMBINING WITH THE WIND WAVES AND USUAL TRADE-
WIND SWELL. EVEN THE COMBINATION HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH FOR SMALL
CRAFT OR HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. AS THE SOUTHEAST SWELL ABATES...OUR
MARINE WEATHER WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PASSIVE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FOR THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF THIS MONTH THE ISLAND OF KAPINGAMARANGI
IN POHNPEI STATE RECEIVED NO RAIN. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE
HELP WITH AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SATELLITE LOOKS
ALMOST CLEAR RIGHT NOW. FOR FURTHER DETAILS SEE THE DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER
HEADER AXGM70 PGUM AND AWIPS PIL DGTGUM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE REFORMING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MAJURO SO 
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY. MODELS INDICATE 
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF 
MAJURO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT 
KOSRAE AND ARE NOW EDGING INTO THE POHNPEI AREA. MODELS SHOW A 
GENERAL INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND MORE WIDESPREAD 
SHOWERS NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY DRY 
CONDITIONS OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF JTWC 
INVEST AREA 91W...LOCATED NEAR CHUUK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT 
CHUUK TODAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FILTER 
OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
RETURN BY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST FOR YAP AND KOROR HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON 
TRACK OF 91W AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL 
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF 91W WHICH WOULD BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS 
TO YAP BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND KOROR MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THIS 
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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