From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 11 05:51:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8ALpuVC027104 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 05:51:57 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ABvuEh022418; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3332337 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:34 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ALpY8Z003434 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ALpRFh022190 for ; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:33 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id AC5DB108B0001; Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:27 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009100149 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100910215127.AC5DB108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 10 Sep 2010 16:51:27 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 735 FXPQ60 PGUM 102151 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 751 AM CHST SAT SEP 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT TO EXIT THE MARIANAS WATERS TO THE WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ AND A BAND EXTENDS FROM 130E TO THE DATELINE. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 14N FROM 151E TO 156E. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 6N AND 13N FROM 168E TO THE DATELINE AND BEYOND. && .DISCUSSION... THE SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK MAY END UP INFLUENCING WEATHER IN THE MARIANAS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE GFS40 SUGGESTED THIS BUT DID NOT SEEM TO INITIALIZED IT VERY WELL. THEREFORE DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL RECOMMEND DAY SHIFT WATCHES THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS. JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST FEW HOURS FOR SOME TUTT SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...ENHANCED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE. OTHERWISE GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD START DIMINISHING SOON...PERHAPS 24 HOURS. THIS SWELL HAS BEEN COMBINING WITH THE WIND WAVES AND USUAL TRADE- WIND SWELL. EVEN THE COMBINATION HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT OR HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. AS THE SOUTHEAST SWELL ABATES...OUR MARINE WEATHER WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PASSIVE. && .HYDROLOGY... FOR THE FIRST TEN DAYS OF THIS MONTH THE ISLAND OF KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE RECEIVED NO RAIN. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE HELP WITH AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SATELLITE LOOKS ALMOST CLEAR RIGHT NOW. FOR FURTHER DETAILS SEE THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER HEADER AXGM70 PGUM AND AWIPS PIL DGTGUM. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE REFORMING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MAJURO SO ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE TODAY. MODELS INDICATE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT KOSRAE AND ARE NOW EDGING INTO THE POHNPEI AREA. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL INCREASE IN TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NEXT WEEK BUT UNTIL THEN...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED MAINLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF JTWC INVEST AREA 91W...LOCATED NEAR CHUUK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT CHUUK TODAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FILTER OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST FOR YAP AND KOROR HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF 91W AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF 91W WHICH WOULD BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO YAP BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND KOROR MONDAY. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THIS DISTURBANCE. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.