Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:06:43 -0500

330 
FXPQ60 PGUM 110806
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
606 PM CHST SAT SEP 11 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE GUAM AND ROTA MARINE ZONES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ABOUT 200 TO 250 SOUTHEAST
OF GUAM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY INITIATED WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE
ABOVE SYSTEM 200 TO 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND INDICATE OR
AT THE LEAST HINT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM ON SATELLITE INDICATES SOME STRATIFYING WITH CLOUD
TOPS WARMING BUT MAY BE REINVIGORATED BY A TUTT WHICH HAS MOVED
SOUTHWARD AND PRESENTLY CROSSES THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD START DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE
SOUTHEAST SWELL ABATES...OUR MARINE WEATHER WILL BECOME EVEN MORE
PASSIVE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS THE TRADE CONVERGENCE PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS FROM MAJURO EAST TO THE DATELINE AND NORTH BEYOND 10N. 
SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO MAJURO WATERS...AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED 
SUN MORNING. BROUGHT SCATTERED BACK IN WED...AS MORE CONVERGENCE 
WORKS IN FROM THE EAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR POHNPEI AND 
KOSRAE...THOUGH LATEST GFS HINTS AT INCREASED SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI 
WED OR THU. 

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS SLOWLY PULLING OUT TO THE NW...AND WHILE 
SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DECREASING...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY 
OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF 
ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS SOUTH OF YAP ARE FORECAST BY GFS TO MOVE ACROSS PALAU 
TONIGHT...AND PUSH NW INTO YAP TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND THAT 
LOOKS REASONABLE. LEFT THE REST OF THE WEEK MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION OF ANYTHING BEYOND 
RANDOM MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/MIDDLEBROOKE

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