From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 11 16:14:01 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8B8E0qk027836 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 16:14:01 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8B70HIW009615; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:31 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3337773 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:30 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8B8DUhw013571 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8B8DNCZ019096 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DA5BF405001E; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:23 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009110008 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100911081323.DA5BF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2010 03:13:23 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 114 FXPQ60 PGUM 110813 CCA AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 606 PM CHST SAT SEP 11 2010 ...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF MCS... .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE GUAM AND ROTA MARINE ZONES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ABOUT 200 TO 250 SOUTHEAST OF GUAM MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. && .DISCUSSION... ALL THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY INITIATED WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE ABOVE SYSTEM 200 TO 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND INDICATE OR AT THE LEAST HINT AT SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM ON SATELLITE INDICATES SOME STRATIFYING WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING BUT MAY BE REINVIGORATED BY A TUTT WHICH HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD AND PRESENTLY CROSSES THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. && .MARINE... SOUTHEAST SWELL SHOULD START DIMINISHING BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE SOUTHEAST SWELL ABATES...OUR MARINE WEATHER WILL BECOME EVEN MORE PASSIVE. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... MAIN WEATHER MAKER IS THE TRADE CONVERGENCE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM MAJURO EAST TO THE DATELINE AND NORTH BEYOND 10N. SATELLITE SHOWS SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING INTO MAJURO WATERS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ISOLATED SUN MORNING. BROUGHT SCATTERED BACK IN WED...AS MORE CONVERGENCE WORKS IN FROM THE EAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...THOUGH LATEST GFS HINTS AT INCREASED SHOWERS FOR POHNPEI WED OR THU. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DISTURBANCE NEAR CHUUK IS SLOWLY PULLING OUT TO THE NW...AND WHILE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DECREASING...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF YAP ARE FORECAST BY GFS TO MOVE ACROSS PALAU TONIGHT...AND PUSH NW INTO YAP TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. LEFT THE REST OF THE WEEK MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...AS MODELS GIVE NO INDICATION OF ANYTHING BEYOND RANDOM MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/MIDDLEBROOKE +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.