Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:01 -0500

086 
FXPQ60 PGUM 112209
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
809 AM CHST SUN SEP 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THESE ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH /TUTT/. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER YAP
AND TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI AND
NORTH OF KOSRAE IN THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTED STRATIFYING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAS IN WHOLESALE
RETREAT FROM THE MARIANAS BY 3 AM. MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO
BRING IT BACK SO MADE TODAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
AFTER ALL...A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED.
LEFT SCATTERED IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS HAS MATCHED DIURNAL
TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPTICK AGAIN
TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABNORMALY DRY WEATHER IN FAR
SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ARE TO THE EAST OF 
MAJURO. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE ITCZ SO PERIODS OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAJURO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS BUT NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A 
TROUGH EAST OF THE DATELINE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALLS BY 
MIDWEEK BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK OVER THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS 
ARE OBSERVED AROUND KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GFS INDICATING INCREASING 
SHOWERS MONDAY FOR KOSRAE AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE CHUUK WITH DRIER 
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING 
OVER THE CHUUK AREA TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. 
SHOWERS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW WEST OF THE MARIANAS ARE EXPECTED 
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER YAP THROUGH TODAY. DISTURBANCE WEST OF CHUUK 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR 
YAP MONDAY NIGHT AND KOROR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THEN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/WILLIAMS

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