From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 12 06:10:25 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8BMAOAT008039 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 06:10:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8B80XB0012708; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3342585 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:09 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8BMA9vJ007912 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8BMA1MJ001346 for ; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6302A405001E; Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:01 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009110119 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100911221001.6302A405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 11 Sep 2010 17:10:01 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 086 FXPQ60 PGUM 112209 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 809 AM CHST SUN SEP 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THESE ARE BEING CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER YAP AND TO THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST EAST OF POHNPEI AND NORTH OF KOSRAE IN THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... CONVECTION STARTED STRATIFYING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WAS IN WHOLESALE RETREAT FROM THE MARIANAS BY 3 AM. MODELS WERE A LITTLE SLOWER TO BRING IT BACK SO MADE TODAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AFTER ALL...A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED. LEFT SCATTERED IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS HAS MATCHED DIURNAL TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE MODELS DO SHOW AN UPTICK AGAIN TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABNORMALY DRY WEATHER IN FAR SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ARE TO THE EAST OF MAJURO. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE ITCZ SO PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT MAJURO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT NO EXTENDED PERIODS OF WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A TROUGH EAST OF THE DATELINE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE AT THE MARSHALLS BY MIDWEEK BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK OVER THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED AROUND KOSRAE AND POHNPEI BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GFS INDICATING INCREASING SHOWERS MONDAY FOR KOSRAE AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR POHNPEI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE CHUUK WITH DRIER WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CHUUK AREA TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. SHOWERS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LOW WEST OF THE MARIANAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER YAP THROUGH TODAY. DISTURBANCE WEST OF CHUUK IS EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR YAP MONDAY NIGHT AND KOROR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.