Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:13 -0500

505 
FXPQ60 PGUM 120609
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
409 PM CHST SUN SEP 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER VIGOROUS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NW INTO THE
MARIANAS WATERS. WINDS ARE VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SW-NE
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS
WIND SPEEDS HITTING 30 KT PLUS AT 1000 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS/UKMET IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
TONIGHT...THEN MOVING ON TO THE NW ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE INTERVALS
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISLAND
THUNDERSTORMS ON GUAM AROUND MIDWEEK IN LIGHT NE WINDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
STRETCHING FROM MICRONESIA TO WAKE ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF WAKE 
ISLAND IS TRIGGERING THE SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH WHILE TRADE-WIND 
CONVERGENCE GENERATES SHOWERS NEARER MICRONESIA. SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY AS 
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TRADE CONVERGENCE KEEPS JUST NORTH OF THE TWO 
LOCATIONS. GFS INDICATES A 3 INCH 5 DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION 
FOR KOSRAE...BUT MODELED PRECIPITATION FIELDS DO NOT SHOW 
OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED AT ANY TIME. LACK OF 
MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO ARGUES AGAINST SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL BRING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING FOR THE REST 
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS UNTIL 
SHOWERS BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK. A FEW SHORT 
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 
WEDNESDAY BUT PREVAILING SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
ISOLATED. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHEAST OF YAP BROUGHT 
SHOWERS TO YAP THIS AFTERNOON AND BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY 
NEARBY UNTIL TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
PALAU BY MONDAY...LASTING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS 
WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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