From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 12 14:09:50 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8C69nIZ000715 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 14:09:50 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8B70Hsv009615; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3345826 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:21 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8C69LxC004506 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8C69EN1014085 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id F0621405001E; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009110161 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100912060913.F0621405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:09:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 505 FXPQ60 PGUM 120609 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 409 PM CHST SUN SEP 12 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A RATHER VIGOROUS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NW INTO THE MARIANAS WATERS. WINDS ARE VEERING TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS WIND SPEEDS HITTING 30 KT PLUS AT 1000 FT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH. && .DISCUSSION... GFS/UKMET IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT...THEN MOVING ON TO THE NW ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE INTERVALS OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS ON GUAM AROUND MIDWEEK IN LIGHT NE WINDS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM MICRONESIA TO WAKE ISLAND. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF WAKE ISLAND IS TRIGGERING THE SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH WHILE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE GENERATES SHOWERS NEARER MICRONESIA. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI ARE EXPECTED TO STAY DRY AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF TRADE CONVERGENCE KEEPS JUST NORTH OF THE TWO LOCATIONS. GFS INDICATES A 3 INCH 5 DAY ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FOR KOSRAE...BUT MODELED PRECIPITATION FIELDS DO NOT SHOW OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED AT ANY TIME. LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO ARGUES AGAINST SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROUGH EAST OF THE DATE LINE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY LINGERING FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT CHUUK FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS UNTIL SHOWERS BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK. A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER WEDNESDAY BUT PREVAILING SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST NORTHEAST OF YAP BROUGHT SHOWERS TO YAP THIS AFTERNOON AND BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEARBY UNTIL TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD TO PALAU BY MONDAY...LASTING UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY NIGHT TO END THE WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.