Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:22 -0500

360 
FXPQ60 PGUM 122202
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
802 AM CHST MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE WEST OF PALAU BETWEEN 4N AND 9N FROM 130E
TO 135E AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 11N AND 17N FROM 134E TO
143E. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR WAKE ISLAND IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 15N AND 22N FROM 163E TO 173E. TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 4N AND 9N
FROM 144E TO 180.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO OUR
EAST TODAY. LARGEST SOURCE OF FORECAST ERRORS TODAY SHOULD BE IF
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CLEAR OUT TOO EARLY. TOOK THE SHOWERS DOWN
TO ISOLATED BUT LEFT THE CLOUDS IN AT THIS TIME. INHERITED
FORECAST WAS IN QUITE GOOD SHAPE SO JUST UPDATED THE WINDS A BIT
WHICH WERE A COUPLE OF KNOTS TOO HIGH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS FOR TODAY IN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WERE UPGRADED TO SCATTERED 
DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS. A BELT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE DATELINE...WITH
SHOWERS CLOSING IN ON POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE LATEST GFS INCREASES
SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
MARSHALLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY IN
MAJURO BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS KOSRAE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REMAINS THE DRY SPOT ACROSS MICRONESIA AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY 
APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH 
MORE THAN ISOLATED THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITTING 
NORTH OF PALAU AND WEST OF YAP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. AS THE
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLIES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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