From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 13 06:02:52 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8CM2o74019234 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 06:02:52 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CCrBpP009615; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:29 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3353543 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:29 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CM2T8o012524 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:29 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CM2MtI026888 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:28 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8D23C405001E; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:22 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009120080 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100912220222.8D23C405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:02:22 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 360 FXPQ60 PGUM 122202 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 802 AM CHST MON SEP 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE WEST OF PALAU BETWEEN 4N AND 9N FROM 130E TO 135E AND WEST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 11N AND 17N FROM 134E TO 143E. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR WAKE ISLAND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 15N AND 22N FROM 163E TO 173E. TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 4N AND 9N FROM 144E TO 180. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO OUR EAST TODAY. LARGEST SOURCE OF FORECAST ERRORS TODAY SHOULD BE IF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CLEAR OUT TOO EARLY. TOOK THE SHOWERS DOWN TO ISOLATED BUT LEFT THE CLOUDS IN AT THIS TIME. INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN QUITE GOOD SHAPE SO JUST UPDATED THE WINDS A BIT WHICH WERE A COUPLE OF KNOTS TOO HIGH. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TODAY IN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WERE UPGRADED TO SCATTERED DUE TO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR BOTH LOCATIONS. A BELT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION TOWARDS THE DATELINE...WITH SHOWERS CLOSING IN ON POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. THE LATEST GFS INCREASES SHOWER COVERAGE AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AS A TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE MARSHALLS. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY IN MAJURO BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS KOSRAE ON THURSDAY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CHUUK REMAINS THE DRY SPOT ACROSS MICRONESIA AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SHOWER COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITTING NORTH OF PALAU AND WEST OF YAP WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHEASTERLIES SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.